Hillary for State?

From Guest Rager / Reflecter Jeff Versteeg

The possible appointment of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State creates a whole host of issues. Here are my thoughts on some of them:

Will she be a team player in the Obama administration?
Many people have questioned whether there might be some in-fighting between her and Biden or Obama on foreign policy, but I don't think there's much reason for concern here. She and Obama agree for the most part on foreign policy, and the differences they had during the primary (meeting with unfriendly foreign leaders, attacking terrorists in Pakistan) were mostly posturing and not substantive differences. I believe Hillary will sit down with the Ahmadinejads of the world, even if all "preconditions" have not been met. She will want to succeed where Bush and Rice failed so miserably. Further, once Hillary is Secretary of State, she will need to be a team player and stay on message for the most part, because she will need Obama much more than Obama needs her. If she were to be cut loose by Obama after a year or two on the job, she would have no Senate seat to go back to (or run for, assuming that Chuck Schumer doesn't retire or she doesn't try to run in Arkansas), and would have no national platform. IF she takes this job, she very much needs to succeed in the post, and that means staying in line with the goals of the Obama administration.

How does Obama benefit from this appointment?
I really don't think that he needs to reach out to the Dems who voted for her in the primary, since most of them voted for him in the general election. He will win those people over more by advocating for policies that help them financially rather than simply appointing Hillary. I think the best thing about appointing Hillary to State, from Obama's perspective, is that he is able to co-opt her by giving her an important cabinet post, thereby silencing his main rival for hegemony of the party and completely removing her from all debates about domestic policy. They had some important differences on domestic policy during the campaign (mandatory health insurance, gas tax holiday), and if she were still in the Senate, she would be looking to distinguish herself, and to not just be a rubber stamp for his policies. In particular, she would certainly try to take the lead on universal health care, which would not only steal Obama's thunder, but might doom that legislation again as it did in 1993. Her mishandling of the Clinton administration's attempt at universal care was an absolute fiasco, and her name should be kept as far as possible from any new attempt to pass universal care. Installing her at State accomplishes exactly that. Co-option is always preferable to coercion, and Obama is showing himself to be a shrewd politician by using this time-honored strategy to effectively neutralize his main rival. This appointment, along with the recent meeting with McCain and the advocation of reconciling with Lieberman, also makes Obama look magnanimous and "above politics."

Is there someone more qualified who wants the job?
Not really. Kerry probably has more foreign policy experience, but he doesn't nearly have the stature that she does at this point. I think Hillary would have significantly more pull with world leaders than Kerry, both because she met with them while Bill was president, and because her profile was very high during the campaign. Richardson was just being considered out of courtesy, since he made a key endorsement during the primary. He'll probably get some lower post, but he's not really qualified for state. Giving this position to some former deputy secretary just wouldn't make sense, when Obama can appoint someone who is very high-profile and clearly qualified.

How will Bill factor into this situation?
This seems to be the major sticking point at the moment. Certainly, Bill would have to stop acting as an influence broker on the part of wealthy donors, to the extent that he has done that over the past eight years. He may also have to eliminate most of his overseas investment portfolio to avoid any conflicts of interest for Hillary. I think he would be willing to do both of these things. Everyone wants him to continue his work with the Clinton Global Initiative (CGI), and to continue giving speeches and making appearances in support of the causes he supports. He will have to stop collecting appearance fees and donations from wealthy businesspeople and officials of foreign governments, though, and he will probably be reluctant to cut off such a large part of his revenue stream. Bill doesn't need the money personally, though, as he is already very rich and could have anything he wanted, even if he were broke. As for the loss of donations to CGI, Bill will find another way to funnel that money to his pet projects, or to other favored charities. The upshot with the conflict-of-interest issues is that everyone seems to want this to work, so they'll make it work. The rules will almost certainly be bent, but I doubt Obama will care, and anyone who would be in a position to conduct meaningful oversight (Senate Foreign Relations Committee, DoJ, US Attorneys) will either be in thrall to Obama (and the Clintons), or will be an Obama appointee. As far as Bill's effect on policy, Hillary and Bill are probably very similar on foreign policy, and again, both seem fairly similar to Obama. They all want to get out of Iraq, they all want a meaningful peace process in Palestine, they're all very pro-trade and anti-nuclear proliferation. Dealing with Bill is more of a technical issue than anything else.

* * *

The bottom line is that this is a great move by Obama. He effectively neutralizes his most visible rival within the Democratic Party, brings her directly under his control, and keeps her as far as possible from the important domestic policy debates that will be going on in the Senate, where she could cause the most trouble for him. At the same time, this power play makes him look magnanimous and competent, since she is clearly qualified, and gives his cabinet more star power. This is a savvy move by a president-elect who is earning his reputation as a master political tactician.